Rankings · Mountain East Conference · Super Region 1
Davis & Elkins College
Ranked 33rd of 202 D2 teams (likely between 17th and 79th) and 3rd of 10 in the MEC. 99% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly through an at-large place.
NCAA tournament chance
99%
Almost certain to make the NCAA tournament.
Top-four seed in Super Region 1 (first chance to host games): 80%
Rank
33 of 202
Likely between 17th and 79th
3rd of 10 in the MEC (likely 2nd to 3rd)
Rating
+0.62
Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.6 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range +0.26 to +1.04
Attack and defense
Attack +0.20: scores 0.20 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense +0.44: concedes 0.44 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the MEC tournament (the auto bid): 17% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 82% chance. NPI now 61.8, 1st of 53 in Super Region 1. The last at-large team usually ends on about 55.1, so Davis & Elkins is about 6.7 above it. Super Region 1 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | under 1% | – |
| 1 | 1% | – |
| 2 | 9% | about 90% |
| 3 | 21% | over 99% |
| 4 | 26% | over 99% |
| 5 | 25% | over 99% |
| 6 | 15% | over 99% |
| 7 (all) | 2% | over 99% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If Davis & Elkins wins all 7: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. Davis & Elkins likely (8 in 10) ranks between 17th and 79th.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.