Rankings · Great Midwest Athletic Conference · Super Region 3

Ashland University

Ranked 125th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 77th and 157th) and 7th of 11 in the G-MAC. 3% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the G-MAC tournament.

Record 3-6-0 (W-L-T) · 3-6-0 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

Most of its chance comes from winning the G-MAC tournament (the auto bid).

Rank

125 of 202

Likely between 77th and 157th

7th of 11 in the G-MAC (likely 4th to 8th)

Rating

−0.16

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.2 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −0.62 to +0.28

Attack and defense

Attack +0.02: scores 0.02 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.19: concedes 0.19 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the G-MAC tournament (the auto bid): 3% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 47.4, 26th of 40 in Super Region 3. The last at-large team usually ends on about 54.5, so Ashland is about 7.1 short. Super Region 3 has 6 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 9 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	1%	–
1	6%	under 5%
2	17%	under 5%
3	22%	under 5%
4	26%	under 5%
5	18%	about 5%
6	7%	under 5%
7	2%	under 5%
8	1%	–
9 (all)	under 1%	about 85%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Ashland wins all 9: its NPI clears the cut line in 83% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Ashland likely (8 in 10) ranks between 77th and 157th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 v Findlay W 28% · T 23% · L 50% likeliest 1–1

Oct 8 v Northwood W 59% · T 20% · L 21% likeliest 2–1

Oct 10 at Lake Erie W 24% · T 22% · L 54% likeliest 1–1

Oct 13 at Malone W 54% · T 22% · L 24% likeliest 1–1

Oct 15 at Findlay W 20% · T 21% · L 59% likeliest 1–1

Oct 19 at D'Youville W 37% · T 25% · L 38% likeliest 1–1

Oct 22 v Ky. Wesleyan W 37% · T 24% · L 39% likeliest 1–1

Oct 24 v Thomas More W 28% · T 24% · L 48% likeliest 1–1

Oct 27 v Ohio Dominican W 67% · T 17% · L 15% likeliest 2–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 26 v Cedarville L 1–2 Rating −0.03

Sep 24 v Walsh W 3–0 Rating +0.07

Sep 19 at Northwood L 0–2 Rating −0.06

Sep 17 at Walsh W 4–0 Rating +0.11

Sep 12 at Cedarville L 1–4 Rating −0.10

Sep 10 at Tiffin L 0–3 Rating −0.05

Sep 4 v Gannon L 1–2 Rating +0.06

Aug 30 at Millersville W 2–0 Rating +0.18

Aug 27 v Davis & Elkins L 1–3 Rating −0.05