Rankings · Great Midwest Athletic Conference · Super Region 3

Northwood University

Ranked 170th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 139th and 184th) and 8th of 11 in the G-MAC. 1% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the G-MAC tournament.

Record 2-6-1 (W-L-T) · 2-6-1 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

Most of its chance comes from winning the G-MAC tournament (the auto bid).

Rank

170 of 202

Likely between 139th and 184th

8th of 11 in the G-MAC (likely 7th to 10th)

Rating

−0.77

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.8 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −1.25 to −0.36

Attack and defense

Attack −0.29: scores 0.29 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.50: concedes 0.50 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the G-MAC tournament (the auto bid): 1% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 46.2, 28th of 40 in Super Region 3. The last at-large team usually ends on about 54.5, so Northwood is about 8.3 short. Super Region 3 has 6 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	11%	under 5%
1	27%	under 5%
2	28%	under 5%
3	20%	under 5%
4	10%	under 5%
5	2%	under 5%
6	under 1%	–
7	under 1%	–
8 (all)	under 1%	about 15%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Northwood wins all 8: its NPI clears the cut line in 15% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Northwood likely (8 in 10) ranks between 139th and 184th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 v Thomas More W 17% · T 21% · L 61% likeliest 0–1

Oct 8 at Ashland W 21% · T 20% · L 59% likeliest 1–2

Oct 10 at Ohio Dominican W 42% · T 23% · L 35% likeliest 1–1

Oct 15 v Ky. Wesleyan W 24% · T 23% · L 53% likeliest 1–1

Oct 17 v Cedarville W 21% · T 25% · L 54% likeliest 0–1

Oct 22 at Lake Erie W 14% · T 18% · L 68% likeliest 0–2

Oct 24 at Malone W 39% · T 24% · L 37% likeliest 1–1

Oct 27 v Findlay W 17% · T 20% · L 64% likeliest 0–2

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Oct 1 v Tiffin L 0–1 Rating +0.06

Sep 26 at Tiffin L 1–2 Rating +0.04

Sep 24 at Cedarville L 0–3 Rating −0.08

Sep 19 v Ashland W 2–0 Rating +0.12

Sep 12 v Walsh W 3–2 Rating −0.02

Sep 8 at Findlay L 0–1 Rating +0.08

Sep 3 v Davenport T 2–2 Rating −0.01

Aug 30 at Purdue Northwest L 0–1 Rating +0.04

Aug 27 v Northern Mich. L 1–4 Rating −0.12