Rankings · Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic Conference · Super Region 3

Davenport University

Ranked 147th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 109th and 172nd) and 6th of 7 in the GLIAC. 2% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the GLIAC tournament.

Record 2-4-3 (W-L-T) · 1-4-3 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

Most of its chance comes from winning the GLIAC tournament (the auto bid).

Rank

147 of 202

Likely between 109th and 172nd

6th of 7 in the GLIAC (likely 5th to 7th)

Rating

−0.42

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.4 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −0.91 to −0.01

Attack and defense

Attack −0.18: scores 0.18 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.25: concedes 0.25 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the GLIAC tournament (the auto bid): 2% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 49.6, 22nd of 40 in Super Region 3. The last at-large team usually ends on about 54.5, so Davenport is about 4.8 short. Super Region 3 has 6 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	8%	under 5%
1	23%	under 5%
2	32%	under 5%
3	22%	under 5%
4	12%	under 5%
5	3%	about 20%
6	0%	–
7	under 1%	–
8 (all)	under 1%	over 99%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Davenport wins all 8: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Davenport likely (8 in 10) ranks between 109th and 172nd.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 2 v St. Cloud St. W 48% · T 23% · L 29% likeliest 1–1

Oct 4 v Roosevelt W 20% · T 24% · L 55% likeliest 0–1

Oct 9 at Roosevelt W 15% · T 22% · L 64% likeliest 0–1

Oct 11 at St. Cloud St. W 39% · T 23% · L 38% likeliest 1–1

Oct 16 v Purdue Northwest W 32% · T 25% · L 43% likeliest 1–1

Oct 18 v Wis.-Parkside W 31% · T 23% · L 46% likeliest 1–1

Oct 21 v Saginaw Valley W 12% · T 18% · L 69% likeliest 0–2

Oct 23 at Northern Mich. W 16% · T 20% · L 64% likeliest 0–2

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 27 at Purdue Northwest L 0–1 Rating +0.02

Sep 25 at Wis.-Parkside W 3–2 Rating +0.06

Sep 20 v Northern Mich. T 1–1 Rating +0.06

Sep 16 at Saginaw Valley L 0–6 Rating −0.20

Sep 12 at Aquinas · not a D2 team, not rated W 1–0

Sep 5 at Tiffin T 0–0 Rating +0.13

Sep 3 at Northwood T 2–2 Rating −0.02

Aug 29 at Missouri S&T L 0–5 Rating −0.20

Aug 27 at Drury L 1–3 Rating −0.04