Rankings · Great Lakes Valley Conference · Super Region 3
Missouri University of Science and Technology
Ranked 71st of 202 D2 teams (likely between 35th and 111th) and 7th of 15 in the GLVC. 24% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly through an at-large place.
NCAA tournament chance
24%
With 2 or more wins from its last 6 games against D2 teams, its NCAA chance is about 31%; with fewer, about 3%.
Top-four seed in Super Region 3 (first chance to host games): 3%
Rank
71 of 202
Likely between 35th and 111th
7th of 15 in the GLVC (likely 3rd to 9th)
Rating
+0.34
Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.3 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range −0.04 to +0.73
Attack and defense
Attack +0.08: scores 0.08 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense +0.25: concedes 0.25 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the GLVC tournament (the auto bid): 8% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 16% chance. NPI now 54.3, 12th of 40 in Super Region 3. The last at-large team usually ends on about 54.5, so Missouri S&T is about 0.2 short. Super Region 3 has 6 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 6 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | under 5% |
| 1 | 18% | under 5% |
| 2 | 30% | about 10% |
| 3 | 25% | about 25% |
| 4 | 18% | about 60% |
| 5 | 4% | about 90% |
| 6 (all) | 1% | over 99% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If Missouri S&T wins all 6: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. Missouri S&T likely (8 in 10) ranks between 35th and 111th.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.