Rankings · Great Lakes Valley Conference · Super Region 3

Maryville University of Saint Louis

Ranked 14th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 6th and 50th) and 1st of 15 in the GLVC. 86% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly through an at-large place.

Record 8-2-1 (W-L-T) · 8-2-1 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

86%

With 4 or more wins from its last 7 games against D2 teams, its NCAA chance is about 98%; with fewer, about 65%.

Top-four seed in Super Region 3 (first chance to host games): 43%

Rank

14 of 202

Likely between 6th and 50th

1st of 15 in the GLVC (likely 1st to 4th)

Rating

+0.97

Would beat an average D2 team by about 1.0 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range +0.55 to +1.49

Attack and defense

Attack +0.61: scores 0.61 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense +0.36: concedes 0.36 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the GLVC tournament (the auto bid): 27% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 59% chance. NPI now 56.9, 7th of 40 in Super Region 3. The last at-large team usually ends on about 54.5, so Maryville (MO) is about 2.4 above it. Super Region 3 has 6 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	under 1%	–
1	3%	about 25%
2	10%	about 50%
3	24%	about 75%
4	27%	about 95%
5	24%	over 99%
6	11%	over 99%
7 (all)	2%	over 99%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Maryville (MO) wins all 7: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Maryville (MO) likely (8 in 10) ranks between 6th and 50th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 at Rockhurst W 53% · T 21% · L 26% likeliest 1–1

Oct 7 at Quincy W 40% · T 27% · L 33% likeliest 1–1

Oct 10 v Ill. Springfield W 80% · T 12% · L 8% likeliest 3–0

Oct 14 v Lincoln (MO) W 46% · T 24% · L 30% likeliest 1–1

Oct 17 at Drury W 44% · T 23% · L 33% likeliest 1–1

Oct 21 at Mo.-St. Louis W 57% · T 22% · L 21% likeliest 1–0

Oct 24 v William Jewell W 77% · T 14% · L 9% likeliest 2–0

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 30 at UIndy W 2–0 Rating +0.07

Sep 26 v Missouri S&T W 2–1 Rating +0.01

Sep 23 at Upper Iowa W 3–1 Rating +0.00

Sep 19 v McKendree W 2–1 Rating +0.01

Sep 16 v Southwest Baptist W 10–2 Rating +0.22 ≈

Sep 13 at Truman St. T 2–2 Rating −0.06

Sep 9 v Lewis W 4–1 Rating +0.08

Sep 5 v Cedarville W 2–0 Rating +0.04

Sep 3 at Wis.-Parkside L 0–1 Rating −0.08

Aug 29 at Rogers St. L 1–3 Rating −0.05

Aug 27 at Southern Nazarene W 2–0 Rating +0.07

≈ rough estimate.