Rankings · Great Lakes Valley Conference · Super Region 3

Southwest Baptist University

Ranked 181st of 202 D2 teams (likely between 158th and 193rd) and 15th of 15 in the GLVC. <1% chance of making the NCAA tournament.

Record 4-4-2 (W-L-T) · 1-4-2 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

<1%

Very unlikely to make the NCAA tournament, even with 7 games against D2 teams left.

Rank

181 of 202

Likely between 158th and 193rd

15th of 15 in the GLVC (likely 13th to 15th)

Rating

−1.13

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 1.1 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −1.72 to −0.64

Attack and defense

Attack −0.40: scores 0.40 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.73: concedes 0.73 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the GLVC tournament (the auto bid): <1% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 46.1, 29th of 40 in Super Region 3. The last at-large team usually ends on about 54.5, so Southwest Baptist is about 8.4 short. Super Region 3 has 6 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	24%	under 5%
1	37%	under 5%
2	25%	under 5%
3	11%	under 5%
4	2%	–
5	under 1%	–
6	under 1%	–
7 (all)	under 1%	about 20%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Southwest Baptist wins all 7: its NPI clears the cut line in 18% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Southwest Baptist likely (8 in 10) ranks between 158th and 193rd.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 v Upper Iowa W 33% · T 21% · L 45% likeliest 1–1

Oct 7 v William Jewell W 31% · T 23% · L 46% likeliest 1–1

Oct 10 at Quincy W 8% · T 15% · L 77% likeliest 0–2

Oct 14 v Rockhurst W 17% · T 18% · L 65% likeliest 1–2

Oct 17 at Ill. Springfield W 22% · T 19% · L 59% likeliest 1–2

Oct 21 at Drury W 7% · T 12% · L 81% likeliest 0–2

Oct 24 v McKendree W 12% · T 18% · L 71% likeliest 0–2

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 30 at Truman St. L 2–3 Rating −0.03

Sep 27 at UIndy T 1–1 Rating +0.17

Sep 23 v Missouri S&T L 0–3 Rating −0.09

Sep 19 v Lewis W 1–0 Rating +0.16

Sep 16 at Maryville (MO) L 2–10 Rating −0.41 ≈

Sep 13 at Lincoln (MO) L 1–3 Rating +0.02

Sep 11 at Avila · not a D2 team, not rated W 7–0

Sep 5 v Mo.-St. Louis T 2–2 Rating +0.02

Sep 1 at Evangel · not a D2 team, not rated W 7–0

Aug 29 at Sterling (KS) · not a D2 team, not rated W 8–0

≈ rough estimate.