Rankings · Great Lakes Valley Conference · Super Region 3
Truman State University
Ranked 157th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 118th and 178th) and 12th of 15 in the GLVC. 1% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the GLVC tournament.
NCAA tournament chance
1%
Most of its chance comes from winning the GLVC tournament (the auto bid).
Rank
157 of 202
Likely between 118th and 178th
12th of 15 in the GLVC (likely 10th to 14th)
Rating
−0.56
Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.6 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range −1.06 to −0.12
Attack and defense
Attack −0.13: scores 0.13 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense −0.44: concedes 0.44 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the GLVC tournament (the auto bid): 1% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 49.8, 20th of 40 in Super Region 3. The last at-large team usually ends on about 54.5, so Truman St. is about 4.7 short. Super Region 3 has 6 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 6 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19% | under 5% |
| 1 | 36% | under 5% |
| 2 | 28% | under 5% |
| 3 | 12% | under 5% |
| 4 | 4% | about 5% |
| 5 | 1% | – |
| 6 (all) | under 1% | about 65% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If Truman St. wins all 6: its NPI clears the cut line in 66% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. Truman St. likely (8 in 10) ranks between 118th and 178th.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.