Rankings · Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic Conference · Super Region 3

St. Cloud State University

Ranked 163rd of 202 D2 teams (likely between 130th and 180th) and 7th of 7 in the GLIAC. <1% chance of making the NCAA tournament.

Record 2-6-1 (W-L-T) · 2-5-1 against D2 teams

Compare with another team

NCAA tournament chance

<1%

Very unlikely to make the NCAA tournament, even with 8 games against D2 teams left.

Rank

163 of 202

Likely between 130th and 180th

7th of 7 in the GLIAC (likely 6th to 7th)

Rating

−0.68

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.7 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −1.15 to −0.24

Attack and defense

Attack −0.22: scores 0.22 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.46: concedes 0.46 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the GLIAC tournament (the auto bid): <1% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 47.2, 27th of 40 in Super Region 3. The last at-large team usually ends on about 54.5, so St. Cloud St. is about 7.3 short. Super Region 3 has 6 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	21%	under 5%
1	34%	under 5%
2	27%	under 5%
3	12%	under 5%
4	4%	under 5%
5	1%	–
6	under 1%	–
7	under 1%	–
8 (all)	under 1%	about 100%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If St. Cloud St. wins all 8: its NPI clears the cut line in 99% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. St. Cloud St. likely (8 in 10) ranks between 130th and 180th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 2 at Davenport W 29% · T 23% · L 48% likeliest 1–1 · compare

Oct 4 at Saginaw Valley W 6% · T 12% · L 82% likeliest 0–2 · compare

Oct 9 v Saginaw Valley W 10% · T 16% · L 75% likeliest 0–2 · compare

Oct 11 v Davenport W 38% · T 23% · L 39% likeliest 1–1 · compare

Oct 14 v Roosevelt W 17% · T 22% · L 61% likeliest 0–1 · compare

Oct 16 at Northern Mich. W 13% · T 17% · L 70% likeliest 0–2 · compare

Oct 23 at Purdue Northwest W 20% · T 21% · L 58% likeliest 0–1 · compare

Oct 25 at Wis.-Parkside W 19% · T 20% · L 61% likeliest 1–2 · compare

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 27 v Northern Mich. L 0–4 Rating −0.14

Sep 23 at Roosevelt T 0–0 Rating +0.13

Sep 20 v Wis.-Parkside L 0–3 Rating −0.10

Sep 17 v Purdue Northwest L 1–2 Rating −0.03

Sep 12 v Ill. Springfield W 2–1 Rating +0.05

Sep 9 v Jamestown L 0–2 Rating −0.09

Sep 2 at St. Thomas (MN) · not a D2 team, not rated L 0–2

Aug 29 at Quincy L 1–5 Rating −0.17

Aug 27 at Truman St. W 3–2 Rating +0.03