Rankings · Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic Conference · Super Region 3
University of Wisconsin-Parkside
Ranked 104th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 54th and 141st) and 4th of 7 in the GLIAC. 5% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the GLIAC tournament.
NCAA tournament chance
5%
Most of its chance comes from winning the GLIAC tournament (the auto bid).
Top-four seed in Super Region 3 (first chance to host games): <1%
Rank
104 of 202
Likely between 54th and 141st
4th of 7 in the GLIAC (likely 3rd to 6th)
Rating
+0.07
Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.1 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range −0.38 to +0.51
Attack and defense
Attack +0.07: scores 0.07 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense +0.00: concedes 0.00 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the GLIAC tournament (the auto bid): 5% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 1% chance. NPI now 49.8, 21st of 40 in Super Region 3. The last at-large team usually ends on about 54.5, so Wis.-Parkside is about 4.7 short. Super Region 3 has 6 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | under 5% |
| 1 | 19% | under 5% |
| 2 | 29% | under 5% |
| 3 | 27% | about 5% |
| 4 | 14% | about 10% |
| 5 | 6% | about 15% |
| 6 | 1% | – |
| 7 (all) | under 1% | over 99% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If Wis.-Parkside wins all 7: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. Wis.-Parkside likely (8 in 10) ranks between 54th and 141st.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.