Rankings · Great Midwest Athletic Conference · Super Region 3
Cedarville University
Ranked 87th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 54th and 123rd) and 5th of 11 in the G-MAC. 9% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the G-MAC tournament.
NCAA tournament chance
9%
Most of its chance comes from winning the G-MAC tournament (the auto bid).
Top-four seed in Super Region 3 (first chance to host games): <1%
Rank
87 of 202
Likely between 54th and 123rd
5th of 11 in the G-MAC (likely 3rd to 7th)
Rating
+0.18
Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.2 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range −0.15 to +0.50
Attack and defense
Attack −0.16: scores 0.16 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense +0.33: concedes 0.33 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the G-MAC tournament (the auto bid): 8% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 49.9, 19th of 40 in Super Region 3. The last at-large team usually ends on about 54.5, so Cedarville is about 4.6 short. Super Region 3 has 6 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | under 5% |
| 1 | 16% | under 5% |
| 2 | 33% | about 10% |
| 3 | 25% | about 10% |
| 4 | 15% | about 15% |
| 5 | 6% | about 15% |
| 6 | 1% | – |
| 7 (all) | under 1% | about 95% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If Cedarville wins all 7: its NPI clears the cut line in 97% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. Cedarville likely (8 in 10) ranks between 54th and 123rd.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.