Rankings · Great Midwest Athletic Conference · Super Region 3

Malone University

Ranked 179th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 152nd and 189th) and 9th of 11 in the G-MAC. <1% chance of making the NCAA tournament.

Record 2-6-1 (W-L-T) · 2-6-1 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

<1%

Very unlikely to make the NCAA tournament, even with 8 games against D2 teams left.

Rank

179 of 202

Likely between 152nd and 189th

9th of 11 in the G-MAC (likely 8th to 11th)

Rating

−0.98

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 1.0 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −1.49 to −0.54

Attack and defense

Attack −0.43: scores 0.43 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.56: concedes 0.56 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the G-MAC tournament (the auto bid): <1% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 45.7, 32nd of 40 in Super Region 3. The last at-large team usually ends on about 54.5, so Malone is about 8.8 short. Super Region 3 has 6 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	5%	under 5%
1	20%	under 5%
2	27%	under 5%
3	26%	under 5%
4	14%	under 5%
5	6%	under 5%
6	1%	–
7	0%	–
8 (all)	under 1%	under 5%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Malone wins all 8: its NPI would still fall short of the cut line, so it would also need to win the G-MAC tournament.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Malone likely (8 in 10) ranks between 152nd and 189th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 at Salem (WV) W 29% · T 22% · L 49% likeliest 1–1

Oct 8 at Lake Erie W 11% · T 17% · L 72% likeliest 0–2

Oct 10 at Findlay W 9% · T 15% · L 76% likeliest 0–2

Oct 13 v Ashland W 24% · T 22% · L 54% likeliest 1–1

Oct 17 at Walsh W 39% · T 23% · L 37% likeliest 1–1

Oct 22 v Ohio Dominican W 45% · T 24% · L 32% likeliest 1–1

Oct 24 v Northwood W 37% · T 24% · L 39% likeliest 1–1

Oct 27 v Walsh W 49% · T 22% · L 28% likeliest 1–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Oct 1 v Ky. Wesleyan T 0–0 Rating +0.11

Sep 26 at Thomas More L 0–2 Rating +0.01

Sep 24 at Ky. Wesleyan L 0–6 Rating −0.21

Sep 19 v Lake Erie L 0–1 Rating +0.06

Sep 17 at Cedarville W 4–1 Rating +0.13

Sep 12 at Tiffin L 0–2 Rating +0.04

Sep 10 v Thomas More L 1–2 Rating +0.01

Sep 5 v California (PA) W 2–0 Rating +0.09

Aug 27 v Salem (WV) L 1–4 Rating −0.15