Rankings · Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference · Super Region 1
Pennsylvania Western University, California
Ranked 190th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 171st and 196th) and 11th of 12 in the PSAC. <1% chance of making the NCAA tournament.
NCAA tournament chance
<1%
Very unlikely to make the NCAA tournament, even with 7 games against D2 teams left.
Rank
190 of 202
Likely between 171st and 196th
11th of 12 in the PSAC (likely 10th to 12th)
Rating
−1.40
Would lose to an average D2 team by about 1.4 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range −1.98 to −0.89
Attack and defense
Attack −0.47: scores 0.47 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense −0.93: concedes 0.93 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the PSAC tournament (the auto bid): <1% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 46.9, 37th of 53 in Super Region 1. The last at-large team usually ends on about 55.1, so California (PA) is about 8.3 short. Super Region 1 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23% | under 5% |
| 1 | 42% | under 5% |
| 2 | 26% | under 5% |
| 3 | 8% | under 5% |
| 4 | 1% | – |
| 5 | under 1% | – |
| 6 | under 1% | – |
| 7 (all) | under 1% | under 5% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If California (PA) wins all 7: its NPI clears the cut line in 4% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. California (PA) likely (8 in 10) ranks between 171st and 196th.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.