Rankings · Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference · Super Region 1

University of Pittsburgh, Johnstown

Ranked 198th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 188th and 201st) and 12th of 12 in the PSAC. <1% chance of making the NCAA tournament.

Record 1-6-0 (W-L-T) · 1-6-0 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

<1%

Very unlikely to make the NCAA tournament, even with 7 games against D2 teams left.

Rank

198 of 202

Likely between 188th and 201st

12th of 12 in the PSAC (likely 11th to 12th)

Rating

−2.05

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 2.1 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −2.76 to −1.45

Attack and defense

Attack −0.44: scores 0.44 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −1.62: concedes 1.62 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the PSAC tournament (the auto bid): <1% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 40.0, 50th of 53 in Super Region 1. The last at-large team usually ends on about 55.1, so Pitt.-Johnstown is about 15.1 short. Super Region 1 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	41%	under 5%
1	40%	under 5%
2	16%	under 5%
3	3%	under 5%
4	under 1%	–
5	under 1%	–
6	under 1%	–
7 (all)	under 1%	under 5%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Pitt.-Johnstown wins all 7: its NPI would still fall short of the cut line, so it would also need to win the PSAC tournament.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Pitt.-Johnstown likely (8 in 10) ranks between 188th and 201st.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 v Lackawanna Not ratednot a D2 team, not rated

Oct 7 at Lock Haven W 6% · T 9% · L 85% likeliest 0–3

Oct 10 v Slippery Rock W 15% · T 16% · L 68% likeliest 1–2

Oct 14 at Seton Hill W 6% · T 9% · L 84% likeliest 0–3

Oct 17 v Gannon W 1% · T 3% · L 96% likeliest 0–5

Oct 21 v Lock Haven W 10% · T 13% · L 77% likeliest 1–3

Oct 24 at Slippery Rock W 10% · T 13% · L 77% likeliest 0–2

Oct 29 at California (PA) W 27% · T 20% · L 53% likeliest 1–2

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 30 v Seton Hill L 0–1 Rating +0.17

Sep 26 at Gannon L 0–9 Rating −0.23

Sep 23 v California (PA) L 0–2 Rating −0.06

Sep 12 at D'Youville L 0–2 Rating +0.03

Sep 9 at Goldey-Beacom L 1–5 Rating −0.19

Sep 6 v Georgian Court L 2–5 Rating −0.12

Sep 3 at Chestnut Hill W 4–2 Rating +0.07