Rankings · Central Atlantic Collegiate Conference · Super Region 1
Goldey-Beacom College
Ranked 185th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 160th and 196th) and 10th of 11 in the CACC. <1% chance of making the NCAA tournament.
NCAA tournament chance
<1%
Very unlikely to make the NCAA tournament, even with 8 games against D2 teams left.
Rank
185 of 202
Likely between 160th and 196th
10th of 11 in the CACC (likely 9th to 11th)
Rating
−1.24
Would lose to an average D2 team by about 1.2 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range −1.92 to −0.68
Attack and defense
Attack −0.16: scores 0.16 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense −1.10: concedes 1.10 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the CACC tournament (the auto bid): <1% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 39.9, 51st of 53 in Super Region 1. The last at-large team usually ends on about 55.1, so Goldey-Beacom is about 15.3 short. Super Region 1 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14% | under 5% |
| 1 | 33% | under 5% |
| 2 | 31% | under 5% |
| 3 | 16% | under 5% |
| 4 | 5% | under 5% |
| 5 | 1% | – |
| 6 | under 1% | – |
| 7 | under 1% | – |
| 8 (all) | under 1% | under 5% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If Goldey-Beacom wins all 8: its NPI would still fall short of the cut line, so it would also need to win the CACC tournament.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. Goldey-Beacom likely (8 in 10) ranks between 160th and 196th.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.