Rankings · Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference · Super Region 1

Bloomsburg University of Pennsylvania

Ranked 60th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 31st and 101st) and 5th of 12 in the PSAC. 3% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the PSAC tournament.

Record 4-4-3 (W-L-T) · 3-4-3 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

Most of its chance comes from winning the PSAC tournament (the auto bid).

Rank

60 of 202

Likely between 31st and 101st

5th of 12 in the PSAC (likely 3rd to 7th)

Rating

+0.42

Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.4 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range +0.07 to +0.79

Attack and defense

Attack +0.11: scores 0.11 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense +0.33: concedes 0.33 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the PSAC tournament (the auto bid): 2% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 48.2, 35th of 53 in Super Region 1. The last at-large team usually ends on about 55.1, so Bloomsburg is about 6.9 short. Super Region 1 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 6 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	2%	–
1	11%	under 5%
2	28%	under 5%
3	34%	under 5%
4	18%	about 5%
5	6%	about 10%
6 (all)	1%	about 15%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Bloomsburg wins all 6: its NPI clears the cut line in 13% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Bloomsburg likely (8 in 10) ranks between 31st and 101st.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 7 at Roberts Wesleyan W 56% · T 21% · L 23% likeliest 1–1

Oct 10 v West Chester W 39% · T 29% · L 33% likeliest 1–0

Oct 14 at Lackawanna Not ratednot a D2 team, not rated

Oct 17 v Millersville W 29% · T 27% · L 44% likeliest 0–1

Oct 21 v Shippensburg W 69% · T 18% · L 13% likeliest 2–0

Oct 24 at Shepherd W 43% · T 26% · L 30% likeliest 1–1

Oct 29 v East Stroudsburg W 40% · T 26% · L 34% likeliest 1–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 30 at East Stroudsburg T 1–1 Rating +0.01

Sep 26 at Millersville L 2–3 Rating −0.03

Sep 23 v Shepherd T 2–2 Rating −0.04

Sep 19 at West Chester L 0–1 Rating −0.02

Sep 16 v Lackawanna · not a D2 team, not rated W 4–0

Sep 12 at Lock Haven T 1–1 Rating −0.01

Sep 9 at Shippensburg L 1–3 Rating −0.14

Sep 5 v Goldey-Beacom W 3–0 Rating +0.03

Sep 2 at Frostburg St. L 1–2 Rating −0.05

Aug 29 v Jefferson W 3–1 Rating +0.03

Aug 27 v Felician W 3–2 Rating +0.01