Rankings · Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference · Super Region 1
West Chester University of Pennsylvania
Ranked 58th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 28th and 103rd) and 4th of 12 in the PSAC. 12% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the PSAC tournament.
NCAA tournament chance
12%
Most of its chance comes from winning the PSAC tournament (the auto bid).
Top-four seed in Super Region 1 (first chance to host games): <1%
Rank
58 of 202
Likely between 28th and 103rd
4th of 12 in the PSAC (likely 3rd to 7th)
Rating
+0.44
Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.4 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range +0.05 to +0.81
Attack and defense
Attack +0.03: scores 0.03 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense +0.41: concedes 0.41 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the PSAC tournament (the auto bid): 9% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 3% chance. NPI now 51.1, 22nd of 53 in Super Region 1. The last at-large team usually ends on about 55.1, so West Chester is about 4.0 short. Super Region 1 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | about 5% |
| 1 | 12% | about 10% |
| 2 | 27% | about 10% |
| 3 | 27% | about 10% |
| 4 | 21% | about 15% |
| 5 | 7% | about 40% |
| 6 | 2% | – |
| 7 (all) | under 1% | over 99% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If West Chester wins all 7: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. West Chester likely (8 in 10) ranks between 28th and 103rd.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.