Rankings · East Coast Conference · Super Region 1
Mercy University
Ranked 41st of 202 D2 teams (likely between 19th and 89th) and 2nd of 9 in the ECC. 42% chance of making the NCAA tournament.
NCAA tournament chance
42%
With 4 or more wins from its last 7 games against D2 teams, its NCAA chance is about 63%; with fewer, about 17%.
Top-four seed in Super Region 1 (first chance to host games): 3%
Rank
41 of 202
Likely between 19th and 89th
2nd of 9 in the ECC (likely 2nd to 3rd)
Rating
+0.57
Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.6 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range +0.17 to +0.98
Attack and defense
Attack +0.30: scores 0.30 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense +0.29: concedes 0.29 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the ECC tournament (the auto bid): 20% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 23% chance. NPI now 55.3, 8th of 53 in Super Region 1. The last at-large team usually ends on about 55.1, so Mercy is about 0.2 above it. Super Region 1 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | – |
| 1 | 5% | under 5% |
| 2 | 14% | about 10% |
| 3 | 25% | about 25% |
| 4 | 27% | about 40% |
| 5 | 20% | about 80% |
| 6 | 8% | about 95% |
| 7 (all) | 1% | over 99% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If Mercy wins all 7: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. Mercy likely (8 in 10) ranks between 19th and 89th.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.