Rankings · East Coast Conference · Super Region 1

Molloy University

Ranked 106th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 68th and 137th) and 4th of 9 in the ECC. 8% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the ECC tournament.

Record 4-2-3 (W-L-T) · 4-2-3 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

Most of its chance comes from winning the ECC tournament (the auto bid).

Top-four seed in Super Region 1 (first chance to host games): <1%

Rank

106 of 202

Likely between 68th and 137th

4th of 9 in the ECC (likely 3rd to 6th)

Rating

+0.05

About level with an average D2 team, on a neutral field.

Likely range −0.31 to +0.36

Attack and defense

Attack −0.21: scores 0.21 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense +0.23: concedes 0.23 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the ECC tournament (the auto bid): 8% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 51.6, 20th of 53 in Super Region 1. The last at-large team usually ends on about 55.1, so Molloy is about 3.5 short. Super Region 1 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 6 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	9%	under 5%
1	27%	under 5%
2	32%	about 10%
3	21%	about 10%
4	9%	about 10%
5	1%	–
6 (all)	under 1%	about 85%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Molloy wins all 6: its NPI clears the cut line in 87% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Molloy likely (8 in 10) ranks between 68th and 137th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 7 v Staten Island W 49% · T 27% · L 25% likeliest 1–0

Oct 10 v Dist. Columbia W 43% · T 31% · L 27% likeliest 1–0

Oct 13 at Southern Conn. St. W 24% · T 29% · L 47% likeliest 0–1

Oct 17 at Queens (NY) W 14% · T 21% · L 65% likeliest 0–1

Oct 21 at Roberts Wesleyan W 44% · T 24% · L 32% likeliest 1–1

Oct 24 v Mercy W 29% · T 27% · L 44% likeliest 0–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 29 at American Int'l L 0–2 Rating −0.05

Sep 26 at D'Youville W 2–1 Rating +0.03

Sep 23 at St. Thomas Aquinas T 0–0 Rating +0.06

Sep 19 v Daemen W 7–1 Rating +0.10

Sep 15 at Dominican (NY) W 1–0 Rating +0.04

Sep 12 v Adelphi T 0–0 Rating +0.04

Sep 8 v Holy Family T 1–1 Rating −0.01

Sep 5 v Assumption L 1–2 Rating −0.04

Aug 27 at Saint Anselm W 1–0 Rating +0.05