Rankings · Northeast-10 Conference · Super Region 1
American International College
Ranked 94th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 52nd and 128th) and 6th of 10 in the NE10. 7% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly through an at-large place.
NCAA tournament chance
7%
With 2 or more wins from its last 6 games against D2 teams, its NCAA chance is about 9%; with fewer, about 2%.
Top-four seed in Super Region 1 (first chance to host games): <1%
Rank
94 of 202
Likely between 52nd and 128th
6th of 10 in the NE10 (likely 4th to 8th)
Rating
+0.14
Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.1 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range −0.21 to +0.52
Attack and defense
Attack −0.09: scores 0.09 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense +0.23: concedes 0.23 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the NE10 tournament (the auto bid): 3% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 4% chance. NPI now 53.6, 12th of 53 in Super Region 1. The last at-large team usually ends on about 55.1, so American Int'l is about 1.5 short. Super Region 1 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 6 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | under 5% |
| 1 | 19% | under 5% |
| 2 | 29% | under 5% |
| 3 | 27% | under 5% |
| 4 | 15% | about 20% |
| 5 | 4% | about 35% |
| 6 (all) | 1% | about 100% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If American Int'l wins all 6: its NPI clears the cut line in 99% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. American Int'l likely (8 in 10) ranks between 52nd and 128th.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.