Rankings · East Coast Conference · Super Region 1

St. Thomas Aquinas College

Ranked 64th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 28th and 111th) and 3rd of 9 in the ECC. 24% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the ECC tournament.

Record 3-3-3 (W-L-T) · 3-3-2 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

24%

Most of its chance comes from winning the ECC tournament (the auto bid).

Top-four seed in Super Region 1 (first chance to host games): <1%

Rank

64 of 202

Likely between 28th and 111th

3rd of 9 in the ECC (likely 2nd to 5th)

Rating

+0.41

Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.4 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −0.04 to +0.83

Attack and defense

Attack +0.22: scores 0.22 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense +0.18: concedes 0.18 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the ECC tournament (the auto bid): 22% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 2% chance. NPI now 52.1, 19th of 53 in Super Region 1. The last at-large team usually ends on about 55.1, so St. Thomas Aquinas is about 3.1 short. Super Region 1 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	0%	–
1	4%	about 10%
2	14%	about 15%
3	22%	about 15%
4	28%	about 25%
5	21%	about 25%
6	8%	about 45%
7	2%	–
8 (all)	under 1%	about 100%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If St. Thomas Aquinas wins all 8: its NPI clears the cut line in 98% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. St. Thomas Aquinas likely (8 in 10) ranks between 28th and 111th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 v D'Youville W 59% · T 22% · L 19% likeliest 1–0

Oct 7 v Queens (NY) W 26% · T 23% · L 50% likeliest 1–1

Oct 10 at Millersville W 21% · T 23% · L 56% likeliest 0–1

Oct 17 at Roberts Wesleyan W 56% · T 20% · L 24% likeliest 2–1

Oct 21 at Staten Island W 51% · T 24% · L 26% likeliest 1–1

Oct 24 v Daemen W 88% · T 8% · L 4% likeliest 3–0

Oct 26 at Pace W 53% · T 22% · L 25% likeliest 1–1

Oct 27 at Adelphi W 31% · T 24% · L 44% likeliest 1–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 29 at Southern Conn. St. L 0–2 Rating −0.08

Sep 26 at Dist. Columbia W 3–1 Rating +0.06

Sep 23 v Molloy T 0–0 Rating −0.01

Sep 19 at Mercy W 3–2 Rating +0.06

Sep 15 v Monroe · not a D2 team, not rated T 1–1

Sep 12 at Franklin Pierce L 1–2 Rating +0.02

Sep 5 v American Int'l T 0–0 Rating −0.01

Aug 30 at Dominican (NY) W 3–0 Rating +0.11

Aug 27 v Southern N.H. L 0–3 Rating −0.07