Rankings · Northeast-10 Conference · Super Region 1

Adelphi University

Ranked 54th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 25th and 100th) and 3rd of 10 in the NE10. 5% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the NE10 tournament.

Record 4-4-2 (W-L-T) · 3-4-2 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

Most of its chance comes from winning the NE10 tournament (the auto bid).

Top-four seed in Super Region 1 (first chance to host games): <1%

Rank

54 of 202

Likely between 25th and 100th

3rd of 10 in the NE10 (likely 3rd to 6th)

Rating

+0.48

Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.5 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range +0.06 to +0.88

Attack and defense

Attack +0.23: scores 0.23 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense +0.27: concedes 0.27 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the NE10 tournament (the auto bid): 5% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 48.5, 33rd of 53 in Super Region 1. The last at-large team usually ends on about 55.1, so Adelphi is about 6.6 short. Super Region 1 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	5%	under 5%
1	18%	under 5%
2	29%	under 5%
3	30%	about 5%
4	14%	about 10%
5	4%	about 10%
6	1%	–
7 (all)	under 1%	about 90%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Adelphi wins all 7: its NPI clears the cut line in 88% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Adelphi likely (8 in 10) ranks between 25th and 100th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 v Saint Anselm W 61% · T 22% · L 17% likeliest 1–0

Oct 7 at Southern Conn. St. W 33% · T 27% · L 40% likeliest 1–1

Oct 10 at Franklin Pierce W 19% · T 20% · L 62% likeliest 1–2

Oct 14 at Queens (NY) W 21% · T 22% · L 57% likeliest 0–1

Oct 17 v Southern N.H. W 16% · T 18% · L 66% likeliest 1–2

Oct 24 at Assumption W 52% · T 22% · L 26% likeliest 1–1

Oct 27 v St. Thomas Aquinas W 44% · T 24% · L 31% likeliest 1–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 29 v Pace W 3–1 Rating +0.03

Sep 26 at Saint Michael's W 3–1 Rating +0.06

Sep 23 at American Int'l L 2–4 Rating −0.09

Sep 19 v Bentley L 0–1 Rating −0.04

Sep 15 v Caldwell W 4–0 Rating +0.10

Sep 12 at Molloy T 0–0 Rating +0.00

Sep 5 v Monroe · not a D2 team, not rated W 3–1

Sep 2 v Mercy T 0–0 Rating +0.01

Aug 29 v Post L 1–2 Rating −0.04

Aug 27 v Wilmington (DE) L 0–2 Rating −0.08