Rankings · Northeast-10 Conference · Super Region 1

Saint Michael's College

Ranked 122nd of 202 D2 teams (likely between 77th and 156th) and 7th of 10 in the NE10. <1% chance of making the NCAA tournament.

Record 1-6-2 (W-L-T) · 1-5-2 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

<1%

Very unlikely to make the NCAA tournament, even with 6 games against D2 teams left.

Rank

122 of 202

Likely between 77th and 156th

7th of 10 in the NE10 (likely 5th to 10th)

Rating

−0.14

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.1 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −0.60 to +0.27

Attack and defense

Attack −0.06: scores 0.06 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.08: concedes 0.08 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the NE10 tournament (the auto bid): <1% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 42.5, 46th of 53 in Super Region 1. The last at-large team usually ends on about 55.1, so Saint Michael's is about 12.6 short. Super Region 1 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 6 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	12%	under 5%
1	31%	under 5%
2	31%	under 5%
3	18%	under 5%
4	7%	under 5%
5	1%	–
6 (all)	under 1%	under 5%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Saint Michael's wins all 6: its NPI would still fall short of the cut line, so it would also need to win the NE10 tournament.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Saint Michael's likely (8 in 10) ranks between 77th and 156th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 v Southern Conn. St. W 28% · T 26% · L 46% likeliest 1–1

Oct 7 v Southern N.H. W 8% · T 12% · L 81% likeliest 0–3

Oct 10 at Saint Anselm W 37% · T 25% · L 37% likeliest 1–1

Oct 13 at VTSU-Johnson Not ratednot a D2 team, not rated

Oct 17 v American Int'l W 34% · T 26% · L 39% likeliest 1–1

Oct 21 v Bentley W 28% · T 26% · L 46% likeliest 1–1

Oct 24 at Pace W 39% · T 24% · L 37% likeliest 1–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 26 v Adelphi L 1–3 Rating −0.07

Sep 23 at Franklin Pierce L 1–3 Rating −0.00

Sep 19 at Assumption L 2–3 Rating −0.05

Sep 15 v Fisher · not a D2 team, not rated L 1–2

Sep 12 at American Int'l L 0–1 Rating +0.00

Sep 5 v Roberts Wesleyan W 3–2 Rating +0.01

Sep 3 v Daemen T 0–0 Rating −0.05

Aug 29 v Georgian Court T 2–2 Rating −0.01

Aug 27 at Caldwell L 1–4 Rating −0.12