Rankings · Central Atlantic Collegiate Conference · Super Region 1

Georgian Court University

Ranked 117th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 68th and 155th) and 5th of 11 in the CACC. 10% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the CACC tournament.

Record 5-2-2 (W-L-T) · 5-2-2 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

10%

Most of its chance comes from winning the CACC tournament (the auto bid).

Top-four seed in Super Region 1 (first chance to host games): <1%

Rank

117 of 202

Likely between 68th and 155th

5th of 11 in the CACC (likely 4th to 8th)

Rating

−0.06

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.1 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −0.58 to +0.36

Attack and defense

Attack +0.23: scores 0.23 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.29: concedes 0.29 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the CACC tournament (the auto bid): 8% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 2% chance. NPI now 53.0, 15th of 53 in Super Region 1. The last at-large team usually ends on about 55.1, so Georgian Court is about 2.1 short. Super Region 1 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	2%	–
1	8%	under 5%
2	19%	under 5%
3	28%	under 5%
4	22%	about 10%
5	14%	about 20%
6	6%	about 30%
7	1%	–
8 (all)	1%	about 95%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Georgian Court wins all 8: its NPI clears the cut line in 97% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Georgian Court likely (8 in 10) ranks between 68th and 155th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 2 v Felician W 29% · T 20% · L 51% likeliest 1–2

Oct 3 v Monroe Not ratednot a D2 team, not rated

Oct 6 at Holy Family W 39% · T 22% · L 39% likeliest 1–1

Oct 10 v Bridgeport W 32% · T 19% · L 49% likeliest 1–2

Oct 13 v Wilmington (DE) W 30% · T 20% · L 51% likeliest 1–2

Oct 17 at Caldwell W 39% · T 21% · L 40% likeliest 1–1

Oct 21 at Jefferson W 41% · T 21% · L 38% likeliest 1–1

Oct 24 at Dominican (NY) W 54% · T 21% · L 25% likeliest 1–1

Oct 27 v Goldey-Beacom W 72% · T 14% · L 14% likeliest 3–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 29 at Chestnut Hill W 3–2 Rating −0.02

Sep 23 at Millersville L 0–4 Rating −0.11

Sep 19 v Post W 1–0 Rating +0.09

Sep 16 v Roberts Wesleyan W 5–2 Rating +0.06

Sep 12 at Queens (NY) L 1–3 Rating −0.01

Sep 6 at Pitt.-Johnstown W 5–2 Rating +0.01

Sep 3 v Staten Island W 4–1 Rating +0.09

Aug 29 at Saint Michael's T 2–2 Rating −0.00

Aug 27 at Bentley T 1–1 Rating +0.06