Rankings · Central Atlantic Collegiate Conference · Super Region 1

Felician University

Ranked 35th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 16th and 88th) and 1st of 11 in the CACC. 21% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the CACC tournament.

Record 2-4-3 (W-L-T) · 2-4-3 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

21%

Most of its chance comes from winning the CACC tournament (the auto bid).

Top-four seed in Super Region 1 (first chance to host games): <1%

Rank

35 of 202

Likely between 16th and 88th

1st of 11 in the CACC (likely 1st to 4th)

Rating

+0.62

Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.6 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range +0.17 to +1.08

Attack and defense

Attack +0.48: scores 0.48 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense +0.14: concedes 0.14 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the CACC tournament (the auto bid): 20% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 48.5, 32nd of 53 in Super Region 1. The last at-large team usually ends on about 55.1, so Felician is about 6.6 short. Super Region 1 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	under 1%	–
1	1%	–
2	4%	about 15%
3	11%	about 5%
4	23%	about 15%
5	28%	about 20%
6	23%	about 30%
7	7%	about 30%
8 (all)	2%	about 30%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Felician wins all 8: its NPI clears the cut line in 29% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Felician likely (8 in 10) ranks between 16th and 88th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 2 at Georgian Court W 51% · T 20% · L 29% likeliest 2–1

Oct 4 v Chestnut Hill W 86% · T 9% · L 5% likeliest 3–0

Oct 7 at Monroe Not ratednot a D2 team, not rated

Oct 11 v Jefferson W 67% · T 17% · L 16% likeliest 2–1

Oct 14 v Dominican (NY) W 76% · T 15% · L 10% likeliest 2–0

Oct 17 at Holy Family W 54% · T 21% · L 25% likeliest 1–1

Oct 21 at Bridgeport W 38% · T 21% · L 41% likeliest 1–1

Oct 25 v Goldey-Beacom W 84% · T 9% · L 7% likeliest 3–0

Oct 27 at Post W 29% · T 26% · L 45% likeliest 0–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 29 v Caldwell W 2–0 Rating +0.03

Sep 19 at Wilmington (DE) T 1–1 Rating +0.01

Sep 16 at Pace L 1–2 Rating −0.09

Sep 13 v Gannon L 0–1 Rating +0.00

Sep 9 v Lock Haven T 5–5 Rating −0.05

Sep 5 at Southern Conn. St. T 1–1 Rating +0.00

Sep 2 at Southern N.H. L 0–3 Rating −0.04

Aug 30 v American Int'l W 3–0 Rating +0.11

Aug 27 at Bloomsburg L 2–3 Rating −0.04