Rankings · Central Atlantic Collegiate Conference · Super Region 1

University of Bridgeport

Ranked 50th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 18th and 104th) and 4th of 11 in the CACC. 20% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the CACC tournament.

Record 3-2-3 (W-L-T) · 3-2-3 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

20%

Most of its chance comes from winning the CACC tournament (the auto bid).

Top-four seed in Super Region 1 (first chance to host games): <1%

Rank

50 of 202

Likely between 18th and 104th

4th of 11 in the CACC (likely 1st to 5th)

Rating

+0.51

Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.5 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range +0.04 to +0.98

Attack and defense

Attack +0.53: scores 0.53 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.01: concedes 0.01 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the CACC tournament (the auto bid): 14% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 6% chance. NPI now 53.3, 14th of 53 in Super Region 1. The last at-large team usually ends on about 55.1, so Bridgeport is about 1.9 short. Super Region 1 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	1%	–
1	6%	about 5%
2	16%	about 10%
3	28%	about 10%
4	26%	about 15%
5	18%	about 35%
6	5%	about 70%
7 (all)	1%	about 100%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Bridgeport wins all 7: its NPI clears the cut line in 99% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Bridgeport likely (8 in 10) ranks between 18th and 104th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 v Wilmington (DE) W 42% · T 20% · L 37% likeliest 1–1

Oct 7 at Post W 27% · T 25% · L 49% likeliest 1–1

Oct 10 at Georgian Court W 49% · T 19% · L 32% likeliest 2–1

Oct 13 v Monroe Not ratednot a D2 team, not rated

Oct 17 v Goldey-Beacom W 83% · T 9% · L 8% likeliest 3–1

Oct 21 v Felician W 41% · T 21% · L 38% likeliest 1–1

Oct 24 at Holy Family W 52% · T 21% · L 27% likeliest 1–1

Oct 27 v Caldwell W 62% · T 18% · L 20% likeliest 2–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 29 at Dominican (NY) W 4–1 Rating +0.08

Sep 19 v Chestnut Hill W 2–0 Rating −0.04

Sep 16 v Southern N.H. T 4–4 Rating +0.06

Sep 9 v Queens (NY) L 0–4 Rating −0.17

Sep 6 v Mercy L 0–2 Rating −0.09

Sep 2 at Franklin Pierce W 3–2 Rating +0.12

Aug 30 v Southern Conn. St. T 2–2 Rating −0.02

Aug 27 at American Int'l T 2–2 Rating −0.01