Rankings · Central Atlantic Collegiate Conference · Super Region 1
Thomas Jefferson University
Ranked 143rd of 202 D2 teams (likely between 94th and 170th) and 8th of 11 in the CACC. 2% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the CACC tournament.
NCAA tournament chance
2%
Most of its chance comes from winning the CACC tournament (the auto bid).
Rank
143 of 202
Likely between 94th and 170th
8th of 11 in the CACC (likely 5th to 9th)
Rating
−0.33
Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.3 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range −0.86 to +0.13
Attack and defense
Attack −0.09: scores 0.09 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense −0.24: concedes 0.24 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the CACC tournament (the auto bid): 2% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 39.8, 52nd of 53 in Super Region 1. The last at-large team usually ends on about 55.1, so Jefferson is about 15.3 short. Super Region 1 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | under 5% |
| 1 | 25% | under 5% |
| 2 | 31% | under 5% |
| 3 | 24% | under 5% |
| 4 | 10% | about 5% |
| 5 | 3% | under 5% |
| 6 | under 1% | – |
| 7 (all) | under 1% | under 5% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If Jefferson wins all 7: its NPI would still fall short of the cut line, so it would also need to win the CACC tournament.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. Jefferson likely (8 in 10) ranks between 94th and 170th.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.