Rankings · Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference · Super Region 1
East Stroudsburg University of Pennsylvania
Ranked 44th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 22nd and 93rd) and 3rd of 12 in the PSAC. 20% chance of making the NCAA tournament.
NCAA tournament chance
20%
With 2 or more wins from its last 5 games against D2 teams, its NCAA chance is about 25%; with fewer, about 5%.
Top-four seed in Super Region 1 (first chance to host games): 1%
Rank
44 of 202
Likely between 22nd and 93rd
3rd of 12 in the PSAC (likely 2nd to 6th)
Rating
+0.55
Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.5 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range +0.14 to +0.95
Attack and defense
Attack +0.30: scores 0.30 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense +0.24: concedes 0.24 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the PSAC tournament (the auto bid): 11% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 9% chance. NPI now 53.3, 13th of 53 in Super Region 1. The last at-large team usually ends on about 55.1, so East Stroudsburg is about 1.8 short. Super Region 1 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 5 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | about 5% |
| 1 | 21% | about 5% |
| 2 | 36% | about 10% |
| 3 | 25% | about 25% |
| 4 | 11% | about 55% |
| 5 (all) | 2% | about 95% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If East Stroudsburg wins all 5: its NPI clears the cut line in 96% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. East Stroudsburg likely (8 in 10) ranks between 22nd and 93rd.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.