Rankings · Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference · Super Region 1

Lock Haven University of Pennsylvania

Ranked 109th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 59th and 144th) and 6th of 12 in the PSAC. 4% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the PSAC tournament.

Record 2-3-5 (W-L-T) · 2-3-5 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

Most of its chance comes from winning the PSAC tournament (the auto bid).

Rank

109 of 202

Likely between 59th and 144th

6th of 12 in the PSAC (likely 5th to 9th)

Rating

+0.01

About level with an average D2 team, on a neutral field.

Likely range −0.43 to +0.47

Attack and defense

Attack +0.12: scores 0.12 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.10: concedes 0.10 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the PSAC tournament (the auto bid): 4% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 49.9, 26th of 53 in Super Region 1. The last at-large team usually ends on about 55.1, so Lock Haven is about 5.2 short. Super Region 1 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	under 1%	–
1	1%	–
2	6%	under 5%
3	15%	under 5%
4	23%	under 5%
5	29%	under 5%
6	19%	about 5%
7	6%	about 10%
8 (all)	1%	about 35%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Lock Haven wins all 8: its NPI clears the cut line in 34% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Lock Haven likely (8 in 10) ranks between 59th and 144th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 at Shippensburg W 51% · T 21% · L 27% likeliest 1–1

Oct 7 v Pitt.-Johnstown W 85% · T 9% · L 6% likeliest 3–0

Oct 10 at California (PA) W 67% · T 17% · L 15% likeliest 2–1

Oct 14 v Slippery Rock W 51% · T 22% · L 27% likeliest 1–1

Oct 17 at Seton Hill W 35% · T 22% · L 43% likeliest 1–1

Oct 21 at Pitt.-Johnstown W 77% · T 13% · L 10% likeliest 3–1

Oct 24 v California (PA) W 76% · T 14% · L 10% likeliest 2–0

Oct 29 v Gannon W 17% · T 16% · L 67% likeliest 1–2

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 30 at Slippery Rock T 2–2 Rating −0.02

Sep 26 v Seton Hill W 2–1 Rating +0.03

Sep 23 at Gannon L 1–3 Rating +0.01

Sep 19 at Dist. Columbia W 1–0 Rating +0.05

Sep 16 at East Stroudsburg T 3–3 Rating +0.02

Sep 12 v Bloomsburg T 1–1 Rating +0.02

Sep 9 at Felician T 5–5 Rating +0.02

Sep 2 v Shepherd L 1–2 Rating −0.06

Aug 30 at Findlay L 1–3 Rating −0.06

Aug 27 v Frostburg St. T 1–1 Rating −0.00