Rankings · Central Atlantic Collegiate Conference · Super Region 1

Holy Family University

Ranked 133rd of 202 D2 teams (likely between 91st and 161st) and 6th of 11 in the CACC. 5% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the CACC tournament.

Record 2-4-4 (W-L-T) · 2-3-4 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

Most of its chance comes from winning the CACC tournament (the auto bid).

Top-four seed in Super Region 1 (first chance to host games): <1%

Rank

133 of 202

Likely between 91st and 161st

6th of 11 in the CACC (likely 5th to 8th)

Rating

−0.25

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.2 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −0.70 to +0.15

Attack and defense

Attack −0.12: scores 0.12 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.12: concedes 0.12 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the CACC tournament (the auto bid): 5% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 49.5, 28th of 53 in Super Region 1. The last at-large team usually ends on about 55.1, so Holy Family is about 5.6 short. Super Region 1 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	2%	–
1	12%	under 5%
2	20%	under 5%
3	25%	under 5%
4	23%	about 10%
5	13%	about 5%
6	4%	about 15%
7	1%	–
8 (all)	under 1%	about 40%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Holy Family wins all 8: its NPI clears the cut line in 39% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Holy Family likely (8 in 10) ranks between 91st and 161st.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 at Post W 16% · T 23% · L 61% likeliest 0–1

Oct 6 v Georgian Court W 39% · T 22% · L 39% likeliest 1–1

Oct 10 at Dominican (NY) W 47% · T 25% · L 28% likeliest 1–1

Oct 13 at Jefferson W 35% · T 24% · L 41% likeliest 1–1

Oct 17 v Felician W 25% · T 21% · L 54% likeliest 1–1

Oct 21 at Goldey-Beacom W 54% · T 20% · L 27% likeliest 2–1

Oct 24 v Bridgeport W 27% · T 21% · L 52% likeliest 1–1

Oct 28 v Chestnut Hill W 68% · T 17% · L 15% likeliest 2–0

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 29 v Wilmington (DE) T 1–1 Rating +0.05

Sep 25 at Caldwell W 2–1 Rating +0.05

Sep 19 at Monroe · not a D2 team, not rated L 1–3

Sep 16 at Dist. Columbia T 1–1 Rating +0.00

Sep 12 v Bentley L 0–2 Rating −0.07

Sep 8 at Molloy T 1–1 Rating +0.03

Sep 5 at Shepherd L 1–2 Rating −0.03

Sep 2 v Queens (NY) W 2–1 Rating +0.10

Aug 29 v West Chester T 0–0 Rating +0.05

Aug 27 at Millersville L 0–5 Rating −0.15