Rankings · Great American Conference · Super Region 3

Rogers State University

Ranked 11th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 6th and 43rd) and 2nd of 7 in the GAC. 52% chance of making the NCAA tournament.

Record 6-3-1 (W-L-T) · 6-3-1 against D2 teams

Compare with another team

NCAA tournament chance

52%

With 5 or more wins from its last 8 games against D2 teams, its NCAA chance is about 64%; with fewer, about 25%.

Top-four seed in Super Region 3 (first chance to host games): 7%

Rank

11 of 202

Likely between 6th and 43rd

2nd of 7 in the GAC (likely 1st to 2nd)

Rating

+1.02

Would beat an average D2 team by about 1.0 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range +0.63 to +1.49

Attack and defense

Attack +0.54: scores 0.54 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense +0.48: concedes 0.48 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the GAC tournament (the auto bid): 28% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 24% chance. NPI now 53.1, 15th of 40 in Super Region 3. The last at-large team usually ends on about 54.5, so Rogers St. is about 1.4 short. Super Region 3 has 6 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	under 1%	–
1	0%	–
2	2%	–
3	11%	about 20%
4	18%	about 30%
5	30%	about 45%
6	22%	about 70%
7	13%	about 90%
8 (all)	3%	over 99%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Rogers St. wins all 8: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Rogers St. likely (8 in 10) ranks between 6th and 43rd.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 at Ouachita Baptist W 69% · T 21% · L 10% likeliest 1–0 · compare

Oct 8 at Southern Nazarene W 52% · T 23% · L 25% likeliest 1–1 · compare

Oct 10 v Fort Hays St. W 30% · T 27% · L 42% likeliest 0–1 · compare

Oct 15 v Newman W 73% · T 16% · L 11% likeliest 2–0 · compare

Oct 22 v Southern Nazarene W 61% · T 21% · L 18% likeliest 1–0 · compare

Oct 24 at Northeastern St. W 60% · T 22% · L 19% likeliest 1–0 · compare

Oct 29 at Harding W 87% · T 9% · L 5% likeliest 3–0 · compare

Oct 31 v Ouachita Baptist W 76% · T 17% · L 7% likeliest 2–0 · compare

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Oct 1 v Harding W 7–0 Rating +0.14

Sep 26 v Northeastern St. L 1–2 Rating −0.10

Sep 19 at Newman W 3–0 Rating +0.07

Sep 17 at Fort Hays St. L 0–2 Rating −0.06

Sep 12 v St. Mary's (TX) L 1–2 Rating −0.06

Sep 9 v Okla. Christian W 2–0 Rating +0.03

Sep 5 at UT Tyler T 2–2 Rating −0.03

Sep 2 at Rockhurst W 5–1 Rating +0.13

Aug 29 v Maryville (MO) W 3–1 Rating +0.07

Aug 27 v McKendree W 1–0 Rating +0.00