Rankings · Lone Star Conference · Super Region 4
St. Mary's University (Texas)
Ranked 63rd of 202 D2 teams (likely between 27th and 106th) and 2nd of 11 in the Lone Star. 16% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the Lone Star tournament.
NCAA tournament chance
16%
Most of its chance comes from winning the Lone Star tournament (the auto bid).
Top-four seed in Super Region 4 (first chance to host games): 0%
Rank
63 of 202
Likely between 27th and 106th
2nd of 11 in the Lone Star (likely 2nd to 6th)
Rating
+0.41
Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.4 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range +0.02 to +0.84
Attack and defense
Attack +0.10: scores 0.10 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense +0.30: concedes 0.30 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the Lone Star tournament (the auto bid): 12% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 5% chance. NPI now 53.7, 15th of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so St. Mary's (TX) is about 2.6 short. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1% | – |
| 1 | 8% | about 5% |
| 2 | 17% | about 10% |
| 3 | 26% | about 10% |
| 4 | 26% | about 10% |
| 5 | 14% | about 20% |
| 6 | 7% | about 50% |
| 7 | 2% | – |
| 8 (all) | under 1% | over 99% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If St. Mary's (TX) wins all 8: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. St. Mary's (TX) likely (8 in 10) ranks between 27th and 106th.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.