Rankings · Lone Star Conference · Super Region 4

Texas A&M International University

Ranked 141st of 202 D2 teams (likely between 95th and 165th) and 9th of 11 in the Lone Star. 2% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the Lone Star tournament.

Record 4-3-2 (W-L-T) · 4-3-2 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

Most of its chance comes from winning the Lone Star tournament (the auto bid).

Rank

141 of 202

Likely between 95th and 165th

9th of 11 in the Lone Star (likely 6th to 10th)

Rating

−0.31

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.3 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −0.75 to +0.12

Attack and defense

Attack −0.16: scores 0.16 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.14: concedes 0.14 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the Lone Star tournament (the auto bid): 2% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 52.3, 19th of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so Tex. A&M Int'l is about 4.0 short. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	7%	under 5%
1	24%	under 5%
2	28%	under 5%
3	25%	under 5%
4	11%	under 5%
5	4%	about 10%
6	1%	–
7 (all)	under 1%	about 80%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Tex. A&M Int'l wins all 7: its NPI clears the cut line in 80% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Tex. A&M Int'l likely (8 in 10) ranks between 95th and 165th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 at Sul Ross St. W 60% · T 20% · L 19% likeliest 1–0

Oct 7 at St. Edward's W 23% · T 22% · L 55% likeliest 1–1

Oct 10 v St. Mary's (TX) W 25% · T 25% · L 50% likeliest 0–1

Oct 14 v UT Tyler W 38% · T 25% · L 37% likeliest 1–1

Oct 21 at Okla. Christian W 24% · T 25% · L 52% likeliest 0–1

Oct 24 v UT Dallas W 26% · T 25% · L 49% likeliest 1–1

Oct 28 at DBU W 22% · T 26% · L 53% likeliest 0–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 30 v Lubbock Christian W 2–1 Rating +0.05

Sep 26 at Midwestern St. L 0–3 Rating −0.01

Sep 23 v West Tex. A&M T 0–0 Rating +0.01

Sep 19 v UT Dallas L 2–3 Rating −0.04

Sep 13 at CSUSB L 0–4 Rating −0.11

Sep 11 at Cal St. Dom. Hills W 3–2 Rating +0.06

Sep 5 v Sul Ross St. W 1–0 Rating +0.00

Aug 31 at West Ala. W 2–0 Rating +0.13

Aug 27 at St. Edward's T 1–1 Rating +0.04