Rankings · Lone Star Conference · Super Region 4

University of Texas at Dallas

Ranked 68th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 29th and 106th) and 3rd of 11 in the Lone Star. 14% chance of making the NCAA tournament.

Record 6-1-3 (W-L-T) · 6-1-3 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

14%

With 4 or more wins from its last 8 games against D2 teams, its NCAA chance is about 21%; with fewer, about 5%.

Top-four seed in Super Region 4 (first chance to host games): 1%

Rank

68 of 202

Likely between 29th and 106th

3rd of 11 in the Lone Star (likely 2nd to 6th)

Rating

+0.37

Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.4 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range +0.02 to +0.81

Attack and defense

Attack +0.11: scores 0.11 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense +0.28: concedes 0.28 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the Lone Star tournament (the auto bid): 7% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 6% chance. NPI now 55.2, 12th of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so UT Dallas is about 1.1 short. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	1%	–
1	5%	under 5%
2	15%	under 5%
3	23%	about 10%
4	29%	about 10%
5	18%	about 20%
6	8%	about 50%
7	1%	–
8 (all)	under 1%	over 99%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If UT Dallas wins all 8: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. UT Dallas likely (8 in 10) ranks between 29th and 106th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 at West Tex. A&M W 54% · T 24% · L 22% likeliest 1–0

Oct 7 at Lubbock Christian W 39% · T 28% · L 33% likeliest 1–1

Oct 10 v Midwestern St. W 16% · T 22% · L 62% likeliest 0–1

Oct 14 at St. Mary's (TX) W 32% · T 27% · L 42% likeliest 1–1

Oct 17 v Sul Ross St. W 82% · T 12% · L 6% likeliest 2–0

Oct 21 v St. Edward's W 47% · T 25% · L 29% likeliest 1–1

Oct 24 at Tex. A&M Int'l W 49% · T 25% · L 26% likeliest 1–1

Oct 28 v UT Tyler W 54% · T 24% · L 22% likeliest 1–0

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 30 v DBU T 0–0 Rating −0.01

Sep 23 at Okla. Christian T 0–0 Rating +0.01

Sep 19 at Tex. A&M Int'l W 3–2 Rating +0.01

Sep 17 at Sul Ross St. W 4–0 Rating +0.08

Sep 10 v Northeastern St. W 2–1 Rating +0.01

Sep 6 at Chaminade W 2–0 Rating +0.02

Sep 5 at Hawaii Pacific W 4–2 Rating +0.04

Sep 2 at Hawaii Hilo L 0–1 Rating −0.03

Aug 29 v Cal St. East Bay W 3–1 Rating +0.03

Aug 27 v Colorado Mesa T 1–1 Rating −0.01