Rankings · Pacific West Conference · Super Region 4

University of Hawaii at Hilo

Ranked 74th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 38th and 117th) and 2nd of 10 in the PacWest. 19% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the PacWest tournament.

Record 4-4-1 (W-L-T) · 4-4-1 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

19%

Most of its chance comes from winning the PacWest tournament (the auto bid).

Top-four seed in Super Region 4 (first chance to host games): <1%

Rank

74 of 202

Likely between 38th and 117th

2nd of 10 in the PacWest (likely 2nd to 5th)

Rating

+0.30

Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.3 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −0.09 to +0.69

Attack and defense

Attack +0.04: scores 0.04 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense +0.26: concedes 0.26 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the PacWest tournament (the auto bid): 19% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 51.6, 27th of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so Hawaii Hilo is about 4.7 short. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 6 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	1%	–
1	5%	about 15%
2	17%	about 15%
3	31%	about 15%
4	27%	about 20%
5	15%	about 30%
6 (all)	4%	under 5%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Hawaii Hilo wins all 6: its NPI clears the cut line in 1% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Hawaii Hilo likely (8 in 10) ranks between 38th and 117th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 at Point Loma W 24% · T 22% · L 54% likeliest 1–1

Oct 10 v Chaminade W 78% · T 15% · L 7% likeliest 2–0

Oct 15 v Westmont W 54% · T 21% · L 25% likeliest 1–1

Oct 18 at Hawaii Pacific W 51% · T 23% · L 26% likeliest 1–1

Oct 21 v Jessup W 78% · T 13% · L 8% likeliest 2–0

Oct 26 v Dominican (CA) W 55% · T 21% · L 24% likeliest 1–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Oct 1 at Biola L 0–3 Rating −0.12

Sep 28 at Vanguard T 2–2 Rating −0.02

Sep 26 at CUI W 2–1 Rating +0.04

Sep 14 at MSU Denver L 0–1 Rating −0.02

Sep 12 at CSU Pueblo L 0–1 Rating −0.00

Sep 9 at UCCS L 1–2 Rating −0.01

Sep 2 v UT Dallas W 1–0 Rating +0.04

Aug 29 at Chaminade W 1–0 Rating −0.01

Aug 27 v Hawaii Pacific W 2–1 Rating −0.00