Rankings · Pacific West Conference · Super Region 4

Biola University

Ranked 115th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 72nd and 150th) and 4th of 10 in the PacWest. 10% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the PacWest tournament.

Record 2-5-3 (W-L-T) · 2-5-3 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

10%

Most of its chance comes from winning the PacWest tournament (the auto bid).

Top-four seed in Super Region 4 (first chance to host games): <1%

Rank

115 of 202

Likely between 72nd and 150th

4th of 10 in the PacWest (likely 3rd to 7th)

Rating

−0.06

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.1 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −0.50 to +0.33

Attack and defense

Attack −0.03: scores 0.03 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.04: concedes 0.04 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the PacWest tournament (the auto bid): 10% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 46.4, 41st of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so Biola is about 9.9 short. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 6 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	6%	under 5%
1	22%	under 5%
2	28%	about 5%
3	27%	about 10%
4	14%	about 20%
5	4%	about 30%
6 (all)	0%	under 5%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Biola wins all 6: its NPI would still fall short of the cut line, so it would also need to win the PacWest tournament.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Biola likely (8 in 10) ranks between 72nd and 150th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 7 at Dominican (CA) W 36% · T 22% · L 42% likeliest 1–1

Oct 10 at Jessup W 63% · T 19% · L 18% likeliest 2–1

Oct 13 v LIFE Pacific Not ratednot a D2 team, not rated

Oct 17 v Point Loma W 24% · T 21% · L 55% likeliest 1–1

Oct 23 v Westmont W 45% · T 22% · L 34% likeliest 1–1

Oct 28 at Vanguard W 38% · T 23% · L 39% likeliest 1–1

Oct 31 at CUI W 29% · T 22% · L 49% likeliest 1–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Oct 1 v Hawaii Hilo W 3–0 Rating +0.13

Sep 28 v Hawaii Pacific T 2–2 Rating −0.03

Sep 26 v Chaminade W 5–1 Rating +0.09

Sep 19 v CUI L 1–2 Rating −0.03

Sep 12 v Cal St. San Marcos L 1–2 Rating −0.04

Sep 9 at Cal State LA L 0–1 Rating +0.04

Sep 5 at Colo. Christian T 2–2 Rating −0.03

Sep 3 at Colo. Sch. of Mines T 0–0 Rating +0.01

Aug 29 at CSUSB L 0–2 Rating −0.02

Aug 27 at Cal Poly Pomona L 0–2 Rating −0.04