Rankings · California Collegiate Athletic Association · Super Region 4

California State Polytechnic University, Pomona

Ranked 39th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 18th and 89th) and 3rd of 13 in the CCAA. 14% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the CCAA tournament.

Record 3-3-3 (W-L-T) · 3-3-3 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

14%

Most of its chance comes from winning the CCAA tournament (the auto bid).

Top-four seed in Super Region 4 (first chance to host games): <1%

Rank

39 of 202

Likely between 18th and 89th

3rd of 13 in the CCAA (likely 2nd to 7th)

Rating

+0.59

Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.6 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range +0.18 to +1.01

Attack and defense

Attack +0.33: scores 0.33 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense +0.26: concedes 0.26 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the CCAA tournament (the auto bid): 11% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 2% chance. NPI now 52.3, 20th of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so Cal Poly Pomona is about 4.0 short. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 9 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	under 1%	–
1	2%	–
2	8%	under 5%
3	17%	about 5%
4	24%	about 15%
5	25%	about 10%
6	15%	about 20%
7	6%	about 25%
8	2%	–
9 (all)	under 1%	about 95%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Cal Poly Pomona wins all 9: its NPI clears the cut line in 95% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Cal Poly Pomona likely (8 in 10) ranks between 18th and 89th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 2 at Chico St. W 47% · T 24% · L 29% likeliest 1–1

Oct 4 at Cal Poly Humboldt W 70% · T 17% · L 13% likeliest 2–0

Oct 9 v Cal St. Dom. Hills W 45% · T 23% · L 32% likeliest 1–1

Oct 11 v Menlo W 57% · T 20% · L 23% likeliest 1–1

Oct 15 at Stanislaus St. W 36% · T 26% · L 38% likeliest 1–1

Oct 17 at Cal St. East Bay W 61% · T 18% · L 21% likeliest 2–1

Oct 23 v Fresno Pacific W 58% · T 20% · L 22% likeliest 2–1

Oct 25 v CSUSB W 34% · T 26% · L 40% likeliest 1–1

Oct 29 at Cal St. San Marcos W 45% · T 23% · L 33% likeliest 1–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 27 v Cal St. Monterey Bay T 3–3 Rating −0.04

Sep 25 v UC Merced W 1–0 Rating +0.01

Sep 18 at Cal State LA L 0–3 Rating −0.10

Sep 12 at Midwestern St. L 1–2 Rating +0.02

Sep 10 at St. Edward's T 1–1 Rating −0.01

Sep 5 at Vanguard T 1–1 Rating −0.02

Sep 2 v Western Ore. W 2–1 Rating +0.03

Aug 29 at Point Loma L 0–2 Rating −0.06

Aug 27 v Biola W 2–0 Rating +0.04