Rankings · California Collegiate Athletic Association · Super Region 4
California State Polytechnic University, Humboldt
Ranked 178th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 151st and 189th) and 13th of 13 in the CCAA. <1% chance of making the NCAA tournament.
NCAA tournament chance
<1%
Very unlikely to make the NCAA tournament, even with 8 games against D2 teams left.
Rank
178 of 202
Likely between 151st and 189th
13th of 13 in the CCAA (likely 12th to 13th)
Rating
−0.95
Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.9 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range −1.46 to −0.54
Attack and defense
Attack −0.36: scores 0.36 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense −0.60: concedes 0.60 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the CCAA tournament (the auto bid): <1% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 46.0, 44th of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so Cal Poly Humboldt is about 10.3 short. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 29% | under 5% |
| 1 | 37% | under 5% |
| 2 | 22% | under 5% |
| 3 | 9% | under 5% |
| 4 | 3% | under 5% |
| 5 | 1% | – |
| 6 | under 1% | – |
| 7 | under 1% | – |
| 8 (all) | under 1% | under 5% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If Cal Poly Humboldt wins all 8: its NPI would still fall short of the cut line, so it would also need to win the CCAA tournament.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. Cal Poly Humboldt likely (8 in 10) ranks between 151st and 189th.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.