Rankings · California Collegiate Athletic Association · Super Region 4
University of California, Merced
Ranked 127th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 90th and 159th) and 11th of 13 in the CCAA. 1% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the CCAA tournament.
NCAA tournament chance
1%
Most of its chance comes from winning the CCAA tournament (the auto bid).
Rank
127 of 202
Likely between 90th and 159th
11th of 13 in the CCAA (likely 7th to 12th)
Rating
−0.21
Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.2 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range −0.63 to +0.15
Attack and defense
Attack −0.24: scores 0.24 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense +0.02: concedes 0.02 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the CCAA tournament (the auto bid): 1% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 49.6, 29th of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so UC Merced is about 6.7 short. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | under 5% |
| 1 | 19% | under 5% |
| 2 | 26% | under 5% |
| 3 | 24% | under 5% |
| 4 | 17% | under 5% |
| 5 | 7% | under 5% |
| 6 | 2% | – |
| 7 | under 1% | – |
| 8 (all) | under 1% | about 40% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If UC Merced wins all 8: its NPI clears the cut line in 41% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. UC Merced likely (8 in 10) ranks between 90th and 159th.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.