Rankings · California Collegiate Athletic Association · Super Region 4
California State University, Monterey Bay
Ranked 91st of 202 D2 teams (likely between 40th and 139th) and 7th of 13 in the CCAA. 5% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the CCAA tournament.
NCAA tournament chance
5%
Most of its chance comes from winning the CCAA tournament (the auto bid).
Rank
91 of 202
Likely between 40th and 139th
7th of 13 in the CCAA (likely 4th to 11th)
Rating
+0.17
Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.2 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range −0.35 to +0.65
Attack and defense
Attack +0.39: scores 0.39 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense −0.24: concedes 0.24 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the CCAA tournament (the auto bid): 3% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 2% chance. NPI now 53.4, 17th of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so Cal St. Monterey Bay is about 2.9 short. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | – |
| 1 | 4% | under 5% |
| 2 | 16% | under 5% |
| 3 | 26% | under 5% |
| 4 | 25% | under 5% |
| 5 | 17% | under 5% |
| 6 | 8% | about 20% |
| 7 | 2% | – |
| 8 (all) | under 1% | about 95% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If Cal St. Monterey Bay wins all 8: its NPI clears the cut line in 96% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. Cal St. Monterey Bay likely (8 in 10) ranks between 40th and 139th.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.