Rankings · California Collegiate Athletic Association · Super Region 4

California State University, Chico

Ranked 111th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 67th and 142nd) and 10th of 13 in the CCAA. 1% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the CCAA tournament.

Record 3-5-2 (W-L-T) · 3-5-2 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

Most of its chance comes from winning the CCAA tournament (the auto bid).

Rank

111 of 202

Likely between 67th and 142nd

10th of 13 in the CCAA (likely 5th to 11th)

Rating

−0.00

About level with an average D2 team, on a neutral field.

Likely range −0.41 to +0.36

Attack and defense

Attack −0.04: scores 0.04 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense +0.04: concedes 0.04 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the CCAA tournament (the auto bid): 1% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 48.1, 35th of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so Chico St. is about 8.2 short. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	4%	under 5%
1	13%	under 5%
2	25%	under 5%
3	29%	under 5%
4	18%	under 5%
5	8%	under 5%
6	2%	–
7	under 1%	–
8 (all)	under 1%	about 10%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Chico St. wins all 8: its NPI clears the cut line in 8% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Chico St. likely (8 in 10) ranks between 67th and 142nd.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 2 v Cal Poly Pomona W 29% · T 24% · L 47% likeliest 1–1

Oct 4 v Cal State LA W 19% · T 24% · L 57% likeliest 0–1

Oct 9 at Fresno Pacific W 33% · T 23% · L 44% likeliest 1–1

Oct 11 at Cal St. Monterey Bay W 31% · T 21% · L 48% likeliest 1–1

Oct 15 at Cal St. San Marcos W 30% · T 23% · L 47% likeliest 1–1

Oct 17 v UC Merced W 47% · T 26% · L 28% likeliest 1–1

Oct 22 v Stanislaus St. W 31% · T 26% · L 43% likeliest 1–1

Oct 29 at Cal Poly Humboldt W 56% · T 22% · L 22% likeliest 1–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 27 at CSUSB L 0–3 Rating −0.08

Sep 25 at Cal St. Dom. Hills L 2–3 Rating −0.04

Sep 20 v Menlo T 2–2 Rating −0.02

Sep 18 v Cal St. East Bay T 1–1 Rating −0.01

Sep 12 v Hawaii Pacific W 2–0 Rating +0.06

Sep 10 at Dominican (CA) W 1–0 Rating +0.06

Sep 5 v Saint Martin's W 3–0 Rating +0.06

Sep 3 v Simon Fraser L 1–2 Rating −0.05

Aug 29 at Seattle Pacific L 2–4 Rating −0.06

Aug 27 at Western Wash. L 2–3 Rating −0.04