Rankings · Great Northwest Athletic Conference · Super Region 4
Seattle Pacific University
Ranked 20th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 9th and 61st) and 1st of 6 in the GNAC. 76% chance of making the NCAA tournament.
NCAA tournament chance
76%
With 6 or more wins from its last 9 games against D2 teams, its NCAA chance is about 96%; with fewer, about 52%.
Top-four seed in Super Region 4 (first chance to host games): 31%
Rank
20 of 202
Likely between 9th and 61st
1st of 6 in the GNAC (likely 1st to 3rd)
Rating
+0.87
Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.9 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range +0.43 to +1.31
Attack and defense
Attack +0.60: scores 0.60 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense +0.27: concedes 0.27 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the GNAC tournament (the auto bid): 31% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 44% chance. NPI now 58.1, 8th of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so Seattle Pacific is about 1.8 above it. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 9 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | under 1% | – |
| 1 | under 1% | – |
| 2 | 2% | – |
| 3 | 6% | about 25% |
| 4 | 14% | about 40% |
| 5 | 24% | about 70% |
| 6 | 27% | about 90% |
| 7 | 17% | about 100% |
| 8 | 8% | over 99% |
| 9 (all) | 1% | over 99% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If Seattle Pacific wins all 9: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. Seattle Pacific likely (8 in 10) ranks between 9th and 61st.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.