Rankings · Great Northwest Athletic Conference · Super Region 4

Western Oregon University

Ranked 27th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 12th and 69th) and 2nd of 6 in the GNAC. 47% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the GNAC tournament.

Record 5-2-4 (W-L-T) · 5-2-4 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

47%

Most of its chance comes from winning the GNAC tournament (the auto bid).

Top-four seed in Super Region 4 (first chance to host games): 5%

Rank

27 of 202

Likely between 12th and 69th

2nd of 6 in the GNAC (likely 1st to 3rd)

Rating

+0.74

Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.7 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range +0.37 to +1.17

Attack and defense

Attack +0.46: scores 0.46 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense +0.31: concedes 0.31 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the GNAC tournament (the auto bid): 33% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 14% chance. NPI now 54.2, 14th of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so Western Ore. is about 2.1 short. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	under 1%	–
1	1%	–
2	7%	about 20%
3	16%	about 20%
4	28%	about 35%
5	28%	about 55%
6	14%	about 75%
7	6%	about 95%
8 (all)	1%	over 99%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Western Ore. wins all 8: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Western Ore. likely (8 in 10) ranks between 12th and 69th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 8 at Seattle Pacific W 32% · T 23% · L 45% likeliest 1–1

Oct 10 at Northwest Nazarene W 45% · T 23% · L 31% likeliest 1–1

Oct 15 v Saint Martin's W 85% · T 10% · L 5% likeliest 3–0

Oct 17 v Jamestown W 89% · T 7% · L 4% likeliest 3–0

Oct 22 v Seattle Pacific W 42% · T 23% · L 35% likeliest 1–1

Oct 24 v Northwest Nazarene W 55% · T 22% · L 23% likeliest 1–1

Oct 29 at Simon Fraser W 48% · T 25% · L 28% likeliest 1–1

Oct 31 at Western Wash. W 42% · T 24% · L 34% likeliest 1–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Oct 1 at Saint Martin's W 3–0 Rating +0.04

Sep 26 v Western Wash. W 3–2 Rating +0.03

Sep 24 v Simon Fraser T 0–0 Rating −0.01

Sep 19 at UT Tyler W 5–0 Rating +0.13

Sep 17 v Midwestern St. L 0–1 Rating +0.00

Sep 12 v Chaminade W 3–0 Rating +0.01

Sep 10 v Cal Poly Humboldt T 1–1 Rating −0.10

Sep 4 at Cal St. Dom. Hills T 2–2 Rating −0.00

Sep 2 at Cal Poly Pomona L 1–2 Rating −0.04

Aug 29 at Westminster (UT) T 3–3 Rating −0.01

Aug 27 v MSU Denver W 3–2 Rating +0.03