Rankings · Great Northwest Athletic Conference · Super Region 4
Northwest Nazarene University
Ranked 78th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 39th and 124th) and 4th of 6 in the GNAC. 40% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly through an at-large place.
NCAA tournament chance
40%
With 3 or more wins from its last 8 games against D2 teams, its NCAA chance is about 51%; with fewer, about 6%.
Top-four seed in Super Region 4 (first chance to host games): 6%
Rank
78 of 202
Likely between 39th and 124th
4th of 6 in the GNAC (likely 2nd to 5th)
Rating
+0.26
Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.3 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range −0.18 to +0.67
Attack and defense
Attack +0.16: scores 0.16 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense +0.10: concedes 0.10 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the GNAC tournament (the auto bid): 14% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 26% chance. NPI now 58.5, 6th of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so Northwest Nazarene is about 2.2 above it. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1% | – |
| 1 | 6% | under 5% |
| 2 | 18% | about 5% |
| 3 | 28% | about 25% |
| 4 | 24% | about 50% |
| 5 | 16% | about 80% |
| 6 | 6% | about 95% |
| 7 | 1% | – |
| 8 (all) | under 1% | over 99% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If Northwest Nazarene wins all 8: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. Northwest Nazarene likely (8 in 10) ranks between 39th and 124th.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.