Rankings · Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference · Super Region 4

Westminster University (Utah)

Ranked 80th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 45th and 120th) and 7th of 11 in the RMAC. 4% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the RMAC tournament.

Record 2-4-4 (W-L-T) · 2-4-4 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

Most of its chance comes from winning the RMAC tournament (the auto bid).

Rank

80 of 202

Likely between 45th and 120th

7th of 11 in the RMAC (likely 5th to 7th)

Rating

+0.24

Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.2 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −0.13 to +0.61

Attack and defense

Attack −0.04: scores 0.04 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense +0.28: concedes 0.28 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the RMAC tournament (the auto bid): 4% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 51.6, 28th of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so Westminster (UT) is about 4.7 short. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	under 1%	–
1	4%	under 5%
2	13%	under 5%
3	25%	under 5%
4	27%	under 5%
5	20%	about 5%
6	10%	about 10%
7	1%	–
8 (all)	under 1%	about 50%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Westminster (UT) wins all 8: its NPI clears the cut line in 51% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Westminster (UT) likely (8 in 10) ranks between 45th and 120th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 2 at Fort Lewis W 19% · T 21% · L 60% likeliest 0–1

Oct 4 at Adams St. W 86% · T 9% · L 5% likeliest 3–0

Oct 8 v Colo. Sch. of Mines W 65% · T 20% · L 15% likeliest 2–0

Oct 16 at South Dakota Mines W 52% · T 24% · L 25% likeliest 1–1

Oct 18 at Regis (CO) W 21% · T 26% · L 52% likeliest 0–1

Oct 23 v MSU Denver W 34% · T 28% · L 38% likeliest 1–1

Oct 25 v Colo. Christian W 61% · T 22% · L 17% likeliest 1–0

Oct 28 at Colorado Mesa W 34% · T 25% · L 42% likeliest 1–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 27 v UCCS T 1–1 Rating +0.02

Sep 24 v CSU Pueblo L 1–2 Rating −0.02

Sep 20 at MSU Denver L 0–2 Rating −0.05

Sep 17 v Regis (CO) L 0–3 Rating −0.09

Sep 12 v Seattle Pacific L 0–1 Rating −0.01

Sep 10 v Western Wash. W 3–1 Rating +0.05

Sep 5 v Jamestown W 4–0 Rating +0.06

Sep 3 v UC Merced T 1–1 Rating −0.02

Aug 29 v Western Ore. T 3–3 Rating −0.00

Aug 27 v Northwest Nazarene T 1–1 Rating −0.00