Rankings · Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference · Super Region 4

Colorado School of Mines

Ranked 169th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 135th and 184th) and 10th of 11 in the RMAC. <1% chance of making the NCAA tournament.

Record 0-8-2 (W-L-T) · 0-8-2 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

<1%

Very unlikely to make the NCAA tournament, even with 8 games against D2 teams left.

Rank

169 of 202

Likely between 135th and 184th

10th of 11 in the RMAC (likely 8th to 10th)

Rating

−0.75

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.8 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −1.28 to −0.29

Attack and defense

Attack −0.21: scores 0.21 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.56: concedes 0.56 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the RMAC tournament (the auto bid): <1% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 39.5, 50th of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so Colo. Sch. of Mines is about 16.8 short. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	6%	under 5%
1	32%	under 5%
2	37%	under 5%
3	19%	under 5%
4	5%	under 5%
5	1%	–
6	under 1%	–
7	under 1%	–
8 (all)	under 1%	under 5%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Colo. Sch. of Mines wins all 8: its NPI would still fall short of the cut line, so it would also need to win the RMAC tournament.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Colo. Sch. of Mines likely (8 in 10) ranks between 135th and 184th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 4 v Colo. Christian W 41% · T 23% · L 37% likeliest 1–1

Oct 8 at Westminster (UT) W 15% · T 20% · L 65% likeliest 0–2

Oct 11 at Colorado Mesa W 15% · T 16% · L 69% likeliest 1–2

Oct 15 v Adams St. W 80% · T 11% · L 8% likeliest 3–0

Oct 18 v Fort Lewis W 10% · T 13% · L 77% likeliest 0–2

Oct 22 at CSU Pueblo W 6% · T 12% · L 82% likeliest 0–2

Oct 25 at UCCS W 7% · T 11% · L 83% likeliest 0–3

Oct 28 v Regis (CO) W 13% · T 18% · L 69% likeliest 0–2

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Oct 1 v MSU Denver L 1–3 Rating −0.04

Sep 25 at South Dakota Mines L 2–3 Rating −0.04

Sep 18 v South Dakota Mines L 2–3 Rating −0.07

Sep 16 at Adams St. T 0–0 Rating −0.02

Sep 12 v DBU L 1–2 Rating −0.01

Sep 10 v UT Tyler L 0–3 Rating −0.13

Sep 5 v CUI L 1–4 Rating −0.12

Sep 3 v Biola T 0–0 Rating +0.07

Aug 29 at Cal Poly Humboldt L 0–1 Rating −0.01

Aug 27 at Menlo L 1–2 Rating +0.03