Rankings · Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference · Super Region 4

Colorado Christian University

Ranked 159th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 124th and 176th) and 9th of 11 in the RMAC. 0% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the RMAC tournament.

Record 2-4-4 (W-L-T) · 2-4-4 against D2 teams

Compare with another team

NCAA tournament chance

Most of its chance comes from winning the RMAC tournament (the auto bid).

Rank

159 of 202

Likely between 124th and 176th

9th of 11 in the RMAC (likely 8th to 10th)

Rating

−0.59

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.6 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −1.03 to −0.18

Attack and defense

Attack −0.24: scores 0.24 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.35: concedes 0.35 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the RMAC tournament (the auto bid): 0% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 47.9, 37th of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so Colo. Christian is about 8.4 short. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	20%	under 5%
1	33%	under 5%
2	28%	under 5%
3	14%	under 5%
4	5%	under 5%
5	1%	–
6	under 1%	–
7	under 1%	–
8 (all)	under 1%	about 30%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Colo. Christian wins all 8: its NPI clears the cut line in 28% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Colo. Christian likely (8 in 10) ranks between 124th and 176th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 4 at Colo. Sch. of Mines W 37% · T 23% · L 41% likeliest 1–1 · compare

Oct 8 at Regis (CO) W 10% · T 16% · L 74% likeliest 0–2 · compare

Oct 11 at South Dakota Mines W 33% · T 23% · L 45% likeliest 1–1 · compare

Oct 16 v UCCS W 13% · T 16% · L 71% likeliest 0–2 · compare

Oct 18 v CSU Pueblo W 11% · T 17% · L 71% likeliest 0–2 · compare

Oct 23 at Colorado Mesa W 17% · T 18% · L 65% likeliest 1–2 · compare

Oct 25 at Westminster (UT) W 17% · T 22% · L 61% likeliest 0–1 · compare

Oct 28 v MSU Denver W 19% · T 22% · L 60% likeliest 0–1 · compare

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 27 v Adams St. W 5–0 Rating +0.09

Sep 25 v Fort Lewis L 0–3 Rating −0.02

Sep 20 v Colorado Mesa L 0–3 Rating −0.06

Sep 17 at CSU Pueblo L 0–2 Rating +0.02

Sep 12 v UT Tyler T 2–2 Rating −0.00

Sep 10 v DBU T 1–1 Rating +0.03

Sep 5 v Biola T 2–2 Rating −0.00

Sep 3 v CUI T 2–2 Rating +0.02

Sep 1 v West Tex. A&M W 3–0 Rating +0.12

Aug 27 at Okla. Christian L 0–3 Rating −0.07