Rankings · Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference · Super Region 4
South Dakota School of Mines & Technology
Ranked 155th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 109th and 181st) and 8th of 11 in the RMAC. 1% chance of making the NCAA tournament.
NCAA tournament chance
1%
With 2 or more wins from its last 8 games against D2 teams, its NCAA chance is about 2%; with fewer, about under 1%.
Rank
155 of 202
Likely between 109th and 181st
8th of 11 in the RMAC (likely 8th to 10th)
Rating
−0.55
Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.6 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range −1.18 to −0.03
Attack and defense
Attack −0.16: scores 0.16 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense −0.43: concedes 0.43 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the RMAC tournament (the auto bid): 1% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 1% chance. NPI now 51.8, 25th of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so South Dakota Mines is about 4.5 short. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | under 5% |
| 1 | 24% | under 5% |
| 2 | 36% | under 5% |
| 3 | 20% | under 5% |
| 4 | 10% | under 5% |
| 5 | 2% | – |
| 6 | 1% | – |
| 7 | under 1% | – |
| 8 (all) | under 1% | over 99% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If South Dakota Mines wins all 8: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. South Dakota Mines likely (8 in 10) ranks between 109th and 181st.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.