Rankings · Great Northwest Athletic Conference · Super Region 4
Simon Fraser University
Ranked 100th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 57th and 133rd) and 5th of 6 in the GNAC. 10% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the GNAC tournament.
NCAA tournament chance
10%
Most of its chance comes from winning the GNAC tournament (the auto bid).
Top-four seed in Super Region 4 (first chance to host games): <1%
Rank
100 of 202
Likely between 57th and 133rd
5th of 6 in the GNAC (likely 3rd to 5th)
Rating
+0.09
Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.1 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range −0.28 to +0.48
Attack and defense
Attack −0.06: scores 0.06 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense +0.15: concedes 0.15 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the GNAC tournament (the auto bid): 9% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 2% chance. NPI now 52.4, 18th of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so Simon Fraser is about 3.9 short. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | – |
| 1 | 7% | under 5% |
| 2 | 20% | about 5% |
| 3 | 29% | about 5% |
| 4 | 24% | about 10% |
| 5 | 13% | about 20% |
| 6 | 5% | about 25% |
| 7 | 1% | – |
| 8 (all) | under 1% | over 99% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If Simon Fraser wins all 8: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. Simon Fraser likely (8 in 10) ranks between 57th and 133rd.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.