Rankings · Lone Star Conference · Super Region 4
Midwestern State University
Ranked 2nd of 202 D2 teams (likely between 1st and 9th) and 1st of 11 in the Lone Star. >99% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the Lone Star tournament.
NCAA tournament chance
>99%
Almost certain to make the NCAA tournament.
Top-four seed in Super Region 4 (first chance to host games): 97%
Rank
2 of 202
Likely between 1st and 9th
1st of 11 in the Lone Star (likely 1st to 1st)
Rating
+1.72
Would beat an average D2 team by about 1.7 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range +1.28 to +2.20
Attack and defense
Attack +1.05: scores 1.05 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense +0.68: concedes 0.68 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the Lone Star tournament (the auto bid): 60% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 40% chance. NPI now 63.0, 1st of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so Midwestern St. is about 6.7 above it. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | under 1% | – |
| 1 | under 1% | – |
| 2 | 1% | – |
| 3 | 6% | over 99% |
| 4 | 17% | over 99% |
| 5 | 30% | over 99% |
| 6 | 30% | over 99% |
| 7 (all) | 16% | over 99% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If Midwestern St. wins all 7: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. Midwestern St. likely (8 in 10) ranks between 1st and 9th.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.